What’s Next?  10 Future Trends that will affect your Business

Joanne H. Pratt

Joanne H. Pratt Associates

 I. Future Trends

 1.  Demographic trends

It’s a cliché but accurate: demographics is destiny.

Life expectancy has increased from 63 (1940) to 70 (1960) to 77.2 in 2005. We—and that’s all of us—are living longer. If we retire at 65 and live to 100, what will we do with an extra 35 years?

Source: NAWBO.  Trends to Consider regarding Association Participation.

2.  Technology: Mobility and Connectivity

Our technology has evolved from PC to laptop to a fully integrated, combination cell phone, computer, camera, organizer, and most importantly, has Internet connection. Take the iPhone, which is almost there in terms of total functionality. It is small, handsome, and easy to use. Will fingers evolve to little points or fingernails be reshaped to fit tiny keypads? 

Broadband Internet is of ever increasing importance.

Access from the cell phone means the world walks with us wherever we go. Further, all media are pushing their readers and viewers to the Internet as if they were promoting their own demise. Every newspaper and TV story points us to the Internet for more information. 

3.  Time

Time has gained value that can trump the dollar in negotiations. Evolution of technology leads to acceleration: everything goes faster. None of us has enough time.  

4.  Communication

We are speeding away from traditional standards of written communication to being always connected. We have moved from the informal communication of an e-mail message to text messaging, which will completely change language. How? Perhaps we will evolve to a written language consisting of Icons + alphabet symbols like the ancient Mayans or present day Japanese use very effectively. Websites, listserves and particularly blogs are all gaining importance.

5.  Participation/competition

      We are totally involved in participation by proxy. We watch week after week, rooting for favorite competitors. So we have: Dancing with the Stars, Survival, Amazing Race, and Are you Smarter than a 5^th Grader? Failure ranges from Top Chef’s  “pack your knives and go” to Donald Trump’s “you’re fired.” Another participation trend is home schooling.

6.  Housing Patterns

Americans are moving away from the big cities and suburbs. They are mobile wherever they are located. According to USA Today, 

  45% of population will move to coasts by 2015. Small towns written off as dead are being re-peopled by business owners and employee teleworkers. 

7.  Environmental Changes

As we stand in the shower reviewing the day’s problems, comforted by cascades of warm water, it behooves us to remember that we’re creating a larger problem by personally draining the reservoirs. 

8.  Health and Longevity

Longevity and medical research breakthroughs have pushed both our expectations for life-saving care and the costs of that care into a high dollar priority expense. We cannot predict whether labor will pay costs (with money earned from the employer) or the employer will pay (with benefits built into wages) or the government will pay (with tax dollars we send to Washington). It’s our cost, paid with our money, no matter how its packaged. Most of us prefer to live—given the alternative.  

9.  Financial Trends

With the U.S. debt accumulating so rapidly, we need to be concerned about future access to capital. Foreign governments, led by Japan, China and the UK hold about 25 percent of our total $8.5 trillion dollar debt.

Source: Schoen, John W. Just who owns the U.S. national Debt? And is growing foreign investment if the U.S. bad for America? MSNBC. 

 10. Globalization

Technology has enabled us to connect around the world

II. How do these trends affect future business?

       1.  Who are the future business owners

Gen X and Y: the Kids

“Forget the elaborate business plans. Kids with passion are our next great entrepreneurs,” says George Gendron, of INC. Magazine. These kids will run surfing shops, make photography into viable businesses and come up with innovative products and services. Think of Michael Dell in his dorm room and Steven Jobs in his garage as Fortune 100 CEOs who started as kids.

         Boomers:

Traditionals are turning non-traditional and moving to  microbusiness. It might sound like a deterrent to building wealth. To the contrary, it is an appealing option. It is possible to earn a third more and work a third less.

 Greatest: The so-called greatest generation, the 62 – 82 year olds, have 35 or more years to enjoy and pay for, but not everyone wants to be a greeter at Wal-Mart. The greatest generation will operate their businesses part time and from a home-based location. That gives them the luxury of enjoying so-called retirement while keeping a hand in and earning income. 

2.  What type and character will future businesses be?

Life stage/lifestyle businesses are emerging, those that are growth-oriented, and those that are so-called “right-sizing” depending on the owner’s life stage and personal and business priority goals. Businesses will be mobile, some virtual, some home-based and located anywhere geographically.  

3.  Who is the future labor supply?

Who needs employees when you can get your customers to do the work for free? The trend towards participation may be the reason that companies like the airlines have succeeded in turning the customer into the employee. Service switched to self-service. Think about it: Because of the Internet we are now doing on our own research on flights, buying tickets, competing for boarding passes, shopping for carry-on meals and packing our own pillows. The airlines used to do all that for us. Only 5.5% of customers printed their own airline tickets in 2001; 65% of us did so in 2005.

Source:  NAWBO.  Trends to Consider regarding Association Participation.

4.  What are future markets?

Globalization is the result of ever increasing levels of technology diffusion and mobility. We can be physically mobile and travel the world; or virtually mobile, letting our words and voices travel. 

5.  How grow business, create wealth?

A growing trend is to redefine wealth. Wealth is not only dollars; it may also be creation of knowledge. Time also has a new value. “People don’t want to be millionaires—they want to experience what they believe only millions can buy,”  says author Timothy Ferriss in his book, The 4-Hour Workweek: Escape 9-5, live anywhere, and join the new rich. 

6.  How will business operation differ?

We feel we must always be available to everyone, 24/7. The problem is that most of us have not learned to set boundaries. A new trend is to handle e-mail by checking it only two times a day and leave your Blackberry in your car overnight.  

The new business norms have not yet been set. When should a business owner be available? How quickly should one expect a reply to an email?  

Looking for speakers?  Joanne Pratt will discuss how current trends will affect the future of your organization. Contact joannepratt@post.harvard.edu

© Joanne H. Pratt Associates 2007